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Fed rate hike in 2026?

$8.4M
volume
$188K
liquidity
ends Dec 9
closes
2
outcomes

The odds

Yes
71%
No
30%

Build a bet

fair odds · live
Your side
Your stake (credits)0 available
you stake
100
Yes
fair counter
42
on No
you win
+42
if you're right
your odds
1.42×
decimal

The market makes Yes slightly favored — about 2 in 3 (71%). Risk 100 and a fair opponent puts up 42 on No — even money, no house.

Resolution

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.