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Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

$6.5M

volume

$4K

liquidity

ends Jan 1

closes

outcomes

The odds

93%

Yes

Build a bet

fair odds · live

Your side

Your stake (credits)0 available

you stake

100

fair counter

on Yes

you win

if you're right

your odds

1.07×

decimal

The market makes No almost a lock — about 13 in 14 (93%). Risk 100 and a fair opponent puts up 7 on Yes — even money, no house.

Resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.