back to the board
Businesslive
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$52.1M
volume
$1.1M
liquidity
ends Dec 31
closes
2
outcomes
The odds
No
75%Yes
26%Build a bet
fair odds · liveYour side
Your stake (credits)0 available
you stake
100
No
fair counter
34
on Yes
you win
+34
if you're right
your odds
1.34×
decimal
The market makes No slightly favored — about 3 in 4 (75%). Risk 100 and a fair opponent puts up 34 on Yes — even money, no house.
Resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.