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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$66.4M
volume
$682K
liquidity
ends Jan 1
closes
2
outcomes
The odds
No
84%Yes
17%Build a bet
fair odds · liveYour side
Your stake (credits)0 available
you stake
100
No
fair counter
20
on Yes
you win
+20
if you're right
your odds
1.20×
decimal
The market makes No the favorite — about 5 in 6 (84%). Risk 100 and a fair opponent puts up 20 on Yes — even money, no house.
Resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.