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Politicslive

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

$11.0M
volume
$255K
liquidity
ends Oct 4
closes
2
outcomes

The odds

No
53%
Yes
48%

Build a bet

fair odds · live
Your side
Your stake (credits)0 available
you stake
100
No
fair counter
90
on Yes
you win
+90
if you're right
your odds
1.90×
decimal

The market makes No a coin flip — a coin flip (53%). Risk 100 and a fair opponent puts up 90 on Yes — even money, no house.

Resolution

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).