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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$41.4M
volume
$522K
liquidity
ends Dec 31
closes
2
outcomes
The odds
No
95%Yes
5%Build a bet
fair odds · liveYour side
Your stake (credits)0 available
you stake
100
No
fair counter
5
on Yes
you win
+5
if you're right
your odds
1.05×
decimal
The market makes No almost a lock — about 21 in 22 (95%). Risk 100 and a fair opponent puts up 5 on Yes — even money, no house.
Resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.