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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
$3.6M
volume
$183K
liquidity
ends Jan 1
closes
2
outcomes
The odds
No
91%Yes
10%Build a bet
fair odds · liveYour side
Your stake (credits)0 available
you stake
100
No
fair counter
10
on Yes
you win
+10
if you're right
your odds
1.10×
decimal
The market makes No the favorite — about 10 in 11 (91%). Risk 100 and a fair opponent puts up 10 on Yes — even money, no house.
Resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.