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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

$3.1M

volume

$246K

liquidity

ends Jan 1

closes

outcomes

The odds

89%

Yes

12%

Build a bet

fair odds · live

Your side

Your stake (credits)0 available

you stake

100

fair counter

on Yes

you win

+13

if you're right

your odds

1.13×

decimal

The market makes No the favorite — about 8 in 9 (89%). Risk 100 and a fair opponent puts up 13 on Yes — even money, no house.

Resolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.