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Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
$3.3M
volume
$84K
liquidity
ends Jan 1
closes
2
outcomes
The odds
No
94%Yes
7%Build a bet
fair odds · liveYour side
Your stake (credits)0 available
you stake
100
No
fair counter
7
on Yes
you win
+7
if you're right
your odds
1.07×
decimal
The market makes No almost a lock — about 14 in 15 (94%). Risk 100 and a fair opponent puts up 7 on Yes — even money, no house.
Resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.